La Nina Floods and Sunspotcycles

   La Nina

La Nina is a part of the broader El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation, climate pattern. Changes to the atmosphere and ocean circulation during La Niña events include:

• Cooler than normal ocean temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
• Increased convection or cloudiness over tropical Australia, Papua New-Guinea, and Indonesia.
• Stronger than normal (easterly) trade winds across the Pacific Ocean (but not necessarily in the Australian region).
• High (positive) values of the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index). 

Globally, La Niña is characterized by wetter than normal conditions west of the equatorial central Pacific over northern Australia and Indonesia during the northern hemisphere winter, and over the Philippines during the northern hemisphere summer. Wetter than normal conditions are also observed over southeastern Africa and northern Brazil, during the northern hemisphere winter season. During the northern hemisphere summer season, the Indian monsoon rainfall tends to be greater than normal, especially in northwest India. Drier than normal conditions are observed along the west coast of tropical South America, and at subtropical latitudes of North America (Gulf Coast) and South America (southern Brazil to central Argentina) during their respective winter seasons.

La Nina and the sunspot cycle

                                        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                         The Sun Spot Cycle

Sunspots appear as dark spots on the surface of the Sun. Temperatures in the dark centers of sunspots drop to about 3700 K (compared to 5700 K for the surrounding photosphere). They typically last for several days, although very large ones may live for several weeks. Sunspots are magnetic regions on the Sun with magnetic field strengths thousands of times stronger than the Earth's magnetic field. Sunspots usually come in groups with two sets of spots. One set will have positive or north magnetic field while the other set will have negative or south magnetic field. The field is strongest in the darker parts of the sunspots - the umbra. The field is weaker and more horizontal in the lighter part - the penumbra. Sunspots appear as dark spots on the surface of the Sun. They typically last for several days, although very large ones may live for several weeks. Sunspots are magnetic regions on the Sun with magnetic field strengths thousands of times stronger than the Earth's magnetic field. Sunspots usually come in groups with two sets of spots. One set will have positive or north magnetic field while the other set will have negative or south magnetic field. The field is strongest in the darker parts of the sunspots - the umbra. The field is weaker and more horizontal in the lighter part - the penumbra.
The "sunspot number" is then given by the sum of the number of individual sunspots and ten times the number of groups. Since most sunspot groups have, on average, about ten spots, this formula for counting sunspots gives reliable numbers even when the observing conditions are less than ideal and small spots are hard to see. Monthly averages (updated monthly) of the sunspot numbers show that the number of sunspots visible on the sun waxes and wanes with an approximate 11-year cycle.

LA NINA

SOLAR CYCLE 14

Solar cycle14 began in February 1902 Solar cycle 14 was the fourteenth solar cycle since 1755, when recording of solar sunspot activity began and  lasted 11.5years ending in august 1914. The maximum smoothed sunspot number (monthly number of sunspots averaged over a twelve month period) observed during the solar cycle was 64.2, and the minimum was 1.5. 1903 was a La Nina year with a sunspot count 5.

1914 the count was 14 and only one recorded in 1913. 1910/11 was a La Nina year   with an average sunspots count at 19 dropping off to 1 in 1913

SOLAR CYCLE 15

Solar cycle 15 lasted 10 years, beginning in August 1913 and ending in August 1923. The maximum smoothed sunspot number (monthly number of sunspots averaged over a twelve month period) observed during the solar cycle was 105.4, and the minimum was 5.6. There were a total of 534 days with no sunspots during this cycle. A major geomagnetic storm occurred on May 13, 1921 causing damage in communication systems and aurora displays at Zenith in California 

Solar Cycle 16

Solar cycle 16  lasted 10.1 years, beginning in August 1923 and ending in September 1933. The maximum smoothed sunspot number (monthly number of sunspots averaged over a twelve month period) observed during the solar cycle was 78.1, and the minimum was 3.5.There were a total of 568 days with no sunspots during this cycle.

Solar Cycle 17

 Solar Cycle 17 began in September 1933 with a smoothed sunspot number of 3.5 and ended in February 1944. The solar cycle lasted 10.4 years. The maximum smoothed sunspot number (monthly number of sunspots averaged over a twelve month period) observed during the solar cycle was 119.2, and the minimum was 7.7. There were a total of 269 days with no sunspots during this cycle. A great aurora display was seen all over Europe on January 25, 1938, as far south as Portugal and Sicily, frightening many people. Aurora was visible over New York on April 3, 1940.

 

Solar Cycle 18

Cycle 18 began in February 1944 with a smoothed sunspot number of 7.7 and ended in April 1954. The solar cycle lasted 10.2 years.  The maximum smoothed sunspot number (monthly number of sunspots averaged over a twelve month period) observed during the solar cycle was 151.8, and the minimum was 3.4. There were a total of 446 days with no sunspots during this cycle.

Solar Cycle 19

Cycle 19 began in April 1954 with a smoothed sunspot number of 3.4 and ended in October 1964.  with 1957 having the highest count of 190 The solar cycle lasted 10.5 years. Intense red aurora display frightened people in Europe in February 11, 1958 and were visible from many US cities. This geomagnetic storm caused a radio blackout over North America. Aurora displays were visible over New York, in November 13, 1960 and October 1, 1961.

Solar Cycle 20

Cycle 20 began in October 1964 with a smoothed sunspot number of 9.6 and ended in June 1976 The solar cycle lasted 11.7 years, beginning in October 1964 and ending in June 1976. The maximum smoothed sunspot number (monthly number of sunspots averaged over a twelve month period) observed during the solar cycle was 110.6, and the minimum was 12.2.There were a total of 272 days with no sunspots during this cycle.

Solar cycle 21

The solar cycle lasted 10.3 years, beginning in June 1976 and ending in September 1986. The maximum smoothed sunspot number (monthly number of sunspots averaged over a twelve month period) observed during the solar cycle was 164.5, and the minimum was 12.3.There were a total of 273 days with no sunspots during this

SOLAR CYCLE 22

Solar cycle 22 lasted 9.7 years, beginning in September 1986 and ending in May 1996. The maximum smoothed sunspot number (monthly number of sunspots averaged over a twelve month period) observed during the solar cycle was 158.5, and the minimum was 8. There were a total of 309 days with no sunspots during this cycle.

SOLAR CYCLE 23

The solar cycle lasted 12.6 years, beginning in May 1996 and ending in December 2008. The maximum smoothed sunspot number (monthly number of sunspots averaged over a twelve month period) observed during the solar cycle was 120.8, and the minimum was 1.7. There were a total of 805 days with no sunspots.

Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 59 in June/July of 2013. We are currently two years into Cycle 24 and the predicted size continues to fall.

Cycle	Monthly smoothed sunspot number
21	Blue
22	Black
23	Red
24	Violet Cycle 21 started in June 1976 and lasted 10 years and 3 months. Cycle 22 started in September 1986 and lasted 9 years and 8 months. Cycle 23 started in May 1996 and lasted 12 years and 6 months. Cycle 24 started in December 2008.